The Seattle Times: The Hot Stone League

For Mariners, time for some changes has arrived

Wed, 22 May 2013 00:34:00 PDT

The last thing you want to do as a baseball team is overreact to a bad stretch. But the Mariners have reached a point where a few moves are necessary not just as a knee-jerk way to shake things up in the middle of a slump, but as a realistic means to improve the team moving forward.

Tonight's loss, a 12-0 rout to the Angels, was as ugly in its own way as the three agonizing walk-off defeats in Cleveland. At least the Mariners fought hard in those games and were in them until the end. Tonight, they were completely non-competitive, an outcome that was set into motion by a very poor start from Aaron Harang. He had missed his last start because of back spasms, and now has had four poor starts out of six as a Mariner. His ERA climbed to 8.58. Harang seems like a great guy, but the team has little reason to endure his ups and downs for what might be at best a modest payoff down the road. Remember, Harang was brought here in somewhat of a desperation move when Blake Beavan got off to a rocky start.

It's unfortunate that both Erasmo Ramirez and Danny Hultzen are hurt, and that James Paxton has been up and down. But the Mariners need to find some more stability at the back end of the rotation. As I've said before, Joe Saunders and his $6 million salary isn't going anywhere, and it seems far more worthwhile to live with the inconsistency of a young pitcher with upside like Brandon Maurer while he learns what it takes to pitch in the major leagues. But they can't afford another rollercoaster pitcher, so I would advocate replacing Harang with another veteran, Jeremy Bonderman. He has been building up his arm strength all year in Tacoma, and has pitched at least six innings in six straight starts. That includes an eight-inning gem in which he blanked Tucson on two hits on May 2. Overall, Bonderman has a 3.79 ERA in nine starts. Hey, he's no sure thing either, but I'll bet most fans are ready to try something new. If it doesn't work, then you can go to Plan D (Beavan being Plan A, Harang Plan B, and Bonderman Plan C).

I'd also give strong consideration to making a move I've been advocating for awhile -- elevating Nick Franklin from Tacoma. He's hit a little bit of a rocky spell, batting just .222 over his last 10 games. But Franklin still has a .370 on-base percentage in that stretch, and is hitting .311 overall -- down from .330, but still providing the promise of being an offensive improvement. I like the idea I heard from Matt Pitman tonight on the post-game show: Calling up Carlos Triunfel (.307) along with Franklin, and cutting loose Robert Andino -- another good guy, but one who has hardly made himself indispensable with a .192 average and .500 OPS.

The accompanying move would be a tough one, but how about letting Dustin Ackley go down to Tacoma to try to find the stroke we saw when he first came up to Seattle, but has been largely absent since. Ackley is hitting .224/.284/.273, and that just doesn't cut it more than one-fourth of the way through the season. I still believe in Ackley's long-term potential, but perhaps a stint in Tacoma to work things out in a lower-pressure environment would be beneficial. Franklin's ability to play shortstop at the major-league level has been questioned. This way, he could slide in at second base, and Triunfel could get some time there as well and share time at shortstop with Brendan Ryan, who right now is riding a hot bat. Even under .200, Ryan is worth keeping around for his glove, but it sure seems high time to see if the Mariners can get a needed offensive boost from Franklin and Triunfel. In the best-case scenario, Ackley would eventually push his way back into the Seattle lineup -- a good problem to have, as the old saying goes.

The other move that is simply crying out to be made is for Jesus Montero to go down to Tacoma as well. He's too often a detriment behind the plate, and for some reason his offense has fizzled as well. Montero was supposed to be a big-time power hitter; he has five extra-base-hits in 110 plate appearances. As Dave Cameron pointed out in a tweet, that's fewer than Pete Kozma, the good-field, no-hit shortstop for the Cardinals. I'll leave it up to the Mariners to decide if they want to continue working with Montero as a catcher; but even if the answer is yes, he should be doing it at Tacoma, so the Mariners can get a decent glove, and a better bat, to team with Kelly Shoppach behind the plate. Should that be Mike Zunino? He seems to have stabilized at the plate after enduring an extended slump that dropped his average under .200. Zunino is hitting .275 over his last 10 games and is back up to .220 overall. His OBP is just .290, but he does produce: seven homers and 35 RBIs with 10 doubles and two triples for a .496 slugging percentage (in a hitter-friendly league, granted). I'll defer to the scouts on whether Zunino is ready (and I doubt he is, quite yet; the fact that the Super Two cutoff date is still a few weeks away might well be another factor keeping him in Tacoma for now). But at this point, Tacoma's backup catcher, Jesus Sucre, would be a better option than Montero. He's hitting .265 in 49 at-bats and is regarded as a solid defensive catcher.

If the Mariners made the moves I suggested -- bringing in Bonderman, Franklin, Triunfel and Sucre, waiving Harang and Andino, sending down Ackley and Montero -- they would need to clear one spot on the 40-man roster. Triunfel is already on the 40-man; Franklin, Bonderman and Sucre would have to be added. The departures of Harang and Andino would take care of two of the three spots, but a third opening would have to be created.

That's an issue, but I daresay one that could be overcome. I'm curious to see if the Mariners, in the midst of their worst stretch of the season and in danger of watching their season disintegrate, agree that a shakeup is called for.

Reaction to PEDs differs in football, baseball

Tue, 21 May 2013 14:16:04 PDT

(Here is today's Mariners minor-league report).

It's long fascinated me to watch the difference in how performance-enhancing drugs in baseball and football are viewed by fans. In baseball, of course, it came to define a whole era -- the steroids era. It was a crisis that shook the sport to its core, led to scorn from fans, took the luster away from vaunted records, tainted almost everyone who played in that era, either by innuendo or guilt by association, led to sweeping changes in policy, kept superstars out of the Hall of Fame, and continues to haunt the game to this day.

Football, by comparison, seems to have gotten a relatively free ride, though my gut, and common sense, tells me that the NFL had, and has, just as big a PED problem as MLB. We're always hearing about the super-human feats of football players -- huge men running amazing speeds and combining that with mind-boggling strength. And returning from major injuries with seemingly superhuman recuperative powers, and then performing better than ever. When baseball players appeared to be superhuman, the media and league were (rightly) lambasted for being either naive or complicit in looking the other way.

This comes to mind, of course, because of the current focus on the Seahawks for their rash of PED violations, most recently the suspension of defensive end Bruce Irvin. The Hawks are suffering some embarrassment and scrutiny, but to me -- and I might be wrong - it doesn't seem to even be as much of a backlash as when the Mariners, in 2005, had eight minor-league players test positive for PEDs. The majority of the fan response I've been hearing and reading seems to be along the line of, that was really stupid of Irvin to jeopardize the Seahawks chances of winning the Super Bowl by getting caught; not that the Seahawks have a culture of cheating that needs to be eradicated -- as I'm certain would be the case if one MLB team had five players suspended in such a short period of time. There is some of that, but I just don't get the same sense of moral outrage that comes with baseball violations.

Maybe it's the difference between Adderall, an amphetamine, and steroids. But not even getting into the question of steroid or HGH use in the NFL, I think it must be reiterated that Adderall is indisputably a performance-enhancing drug, contrary to what some people seem to think. I wrote about this last year when the news broke about Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner of the Seahawks facing suspension for allegedly using Adderall (remember, the NFL does not comment on suspensions; any leak of the drug for which a player has been busted comes from elsewhere; for the record, Sherman was cleared on appeal because of a chain of custody error). Dr. Gary Wadler, past chairman of the World Anti-Doping Agency's Prohibited List Committee, called Adderall "one of the quintessential performance-enhancing drugs. There's no question it's a performance-enhancing drug."

When I talked to Wadler on the phone, he listed off the benefits of Adderall to an athlete.

"It masks fatigue, masks pain, increases arousal — like being in The Zone," begins Wadler, currently an associate professor of medicine at Hofstra North Shore-LIJ School of Medicine. "It increases alertness, aggressiveness, attention and concentration. It improves reaction time, especially when fatigued. Some think it enhances hand-eye coordination. Some believe it increases the mental aspects of performance."

So why does the NFL not have the same PED stigma as MLB? I have a couple of theories:

One is that MLB is a sport built around statistics, and the continuity of those statistics from generation to generation. Every player -- pitcher or hitter -- has a set of numbers associated with him that resonates with meaning, both in the context of the modern game, and in a historical context. The rise of steroids was perceived to have played havoc with that inter-generational connectedness, to the point of rendering meaningless some of the most glamorous records in all of sports -- namely, the single-season and career home run records. There was a steep price to be paid for that, one that continues to be extracted. NFL records are not nearly so sacred, and a good portion of players don't have much of a statistical resume that is meaningful in any historical context. Offensive lineman block. Defensive linemen rush and tackle. It's hard to put that in any context.

Secondly, NFL football is a sport predicated on brute strength and violent collisions, more of a gladiator-type event, and in such a light I just don't think there's as much of a stigma against PEDs. If anything, I sense that they tend to be viewed by fans as almost necessary to survive in this brutal environment. But there should be concern, because it's tied into the biggest crisis the NFL has maybe ever faced -- the rise of concussions and brain injuries and the perception that the sport is reaching a point where it is becoming unsafe for participants. To the extent that PEDs are making players bigger, stronger and faster, it is also making it more dangerous.

If you ask most fans which sport has a PED problem, they would probably say baseball -- despite MLB repeatedly tightening its drug-testing policy to an extent that it is widely viewed now as superior to the NFL's (which still doesn't do a blood test for HGH, as baseball now does). But the reality facing baseball is that perception may never change.

These Mariners' losses will sting for awhile -- but will they carry over?

Mon, 20 May 2013 18:16:04 PDT

(Here is today's Mariners minor-league report).

Endy Chavez, shown above celebrating his go-ahead, pinch-hit homer in the ninth inning, got to be a hero for about five minutes today, long enough for Tom Wilhelmsen to blow his first save of the season by giving up the tying run in the bottom of the ninth. And doing so in forehead-slapping fashion, dropping a throw from Justin Smoak (who had made a diving stop) while covering first for what would have been the game-ending out.

Smoak then hit a homer in the 10th, and got to be a hero for about five more minutes, long enough for Charlie Furbush to not only blow the save, but the game, by giving up a three-run homer to Yan Gomes in the bottom of the 10th.

Yeah, THE Yan Gomes.

It's hard to imagine a more heartbreaking, agonizing series for the Mariners.

In the first game on Friday, they fought back from a 3-1 deficit to tie the game on a two-run homer by Raul Ibanez in the sixth, only to have Lucas Luetge give up a three-run, walk-off homer to Jason Kipnis in the bottom of the 10th. On Saturday, they fought back from a 4-0 deficit to tie the game in the ninth on back-to-back, two-out homers from Ibanez and Smoak, only to give up the winning run in the bottom of the inning -- when Jesus Montero didn't keep his foot on home plate on what should have been a force out. On Sunday, they lost when their ace, Felix Hernandez, gave up six runs in five innings, and they managed just four hits.

And then there was today's roller-coaster, in which they had it won twice, until they didn't. Throw in the first game of this roadtrip, when the Mariners couldn't hold a 3-0 lead against the Yankees with Hernandez on the mound -- that was the game he tweaked his back, and had to come out after six -- and it's been one body blow after another. You can't deny they've battled, but you also can't deny that the bullpen, and defense, have both been inadequate during this stretch.

I'll let Geoff, who is in Cleveland, explain why Eric Wedge didn't send out Wilhelmsen for a second inning, which is the No. 1 second-guess from this game. I would have done so, I believe, but I understand the arguments against -- mainly, pitch count. Wilhelmsen had thrown 22 in the ninth. Add another 15, and you're getting close to 40, which is an awful lot for a short reliever. Wilhelmsen has worked two innings once this season (against Detroit on April 17), and had a peak pitch count of 34 way back on April 5, his second outing of the year. Since then, Wilhelmsen had not gone over 23 pitches; last year, he exceeded 30 just three times, with a high of 37 (before he became closer).

Contrary to the belief of those adamantly ripping Wedge, there is no right or wrong answer to this one. The manager has to look at the big picture. Going back out for a second inning can be problematic for a guy who's not used to it -- Stephen Pryor landed on the disabled list after such an instance earlier this year. On the other hand, Wilhelmsen was rested (he hadn't pitched since Thursday) and has gone beyond one inning a few times since he became closer. But Furbush had pitched 3 2/3 innings in two appearances in this series without allowing a Cleveland baserunner, striking out five. Of course, he had blown a game in New York earlier on this road trip. Here's the best answer to this dilemma: Wilhelmsen should have caught Smoak's toss.

The question now is whether the Mariners will use these tough losses as motivation, or if the cumulative effect will be a demoralizing one. I've seen it work both ways. The most recent stretch I can remember that equates to this one for pure heartbreak occurred in 2011, when closer Brandon League had about as bad a week as I've ever seen. He lost a game to the White Sox in Seattle on Sunday, and then after a travel day, blew saves in walk-off fashion on Tuesday in Baltimore, Thursday in Baltimore, and Friday in Cleveland. (On Wednesday in Baltimore, Felix Hernandez was beaten by the Orioles). Mercifully, the final two game in Cleveland were rained out.

If ever a team should have been demoralized, it was that one. It was right about the same point in the season -- Wedge's first in Seattle. The final loss in Cleveland, on May 13, dropped their record to 16-23. The Mariners currently are 20-25. In 2011, the Mariners responded by winning 14 of their next 17 games, to put their record at 30-27. They eventually collapsed, losing 17 straight in July, but they did survive, and even thrive for awhile, after that week-long string of agonizing losses. Now we'll find out if they can this time.

Are Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma the best one-two starting combo in the majors? (with minor league report)

Fri, 17 May 2013 15:16:05 PDT

(Here is today's Mariners minor league report)

(It appears that Danny Farquhar is coming up from Tacoma to fortify the Mariners' bullpen after it was emptied last night in their 3-2 victory at Yankee Stadium. Hat tip to Ryan Divish for first reporting the pending transaction. Hector Noesi will be the odd man out after going 4 1/3 solid innings in an emergency start against the Yankees. With six straight games, the M's will need a fresh arm in the pen, so Noesi goes down. Lucas Luetge went down under similar circumstances earlier in the year. Farquhar, who came to Seattle in the Ichiro trade, is not on the 40-man roster, so a move will have to be made. This will not be his major-league debut -- Farquhar pitched in three games for the Blue Jays in 2010).

The question in the headline is starting to be heard more and more. The numbers are undeniable: Hernandez is 5-2 with a 1.53 ERA in nine starts, with a 0.93 WHIP, a .215 opponents average, and a strikeouts-to-walks ratio of 64-10. Iwakuma is 5-1 with a 1.84 ERA in nine starts, with a 0.78 WHIP, a .183 opponents average, and strikeouts-to-walks ratio of 55-8. (Above, Dan Plesac of MLB Network talks about Iwakuma on MLB Tonight, comparing him to Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling).

Pick the statistic, and Hernandez and Iwakuma most likely rank in the top 10 in the major leagues. To have two such pitchers on one staff is a tremendous asset for a Mariners' club in search of a .500 record, and beyond that, contention. It makes you realize how close they would be if the other three pitchers performed even at a league-average level. But that's a story for another day.

The question on the table now is whether Hernandez and Iwakuma are the best one-two punch, among starting pitchers, in the major leagues. And a strong case could certainly be made.

There are just nin other teams that have at least two starters (minimum seven starts) with an ERA under 3.00. So right away, we're eliminating more than 65 percent of the league. The Tigers slipped off this list last night when Justin Verlander got lit up for eight earned runs in 2 1/3 innings, his ERA rising from 1.93 to 3.17. Here are the pairings (or more):

Diamondbacks

Pat Corbin: 6-0, 1.52

Trevor Cahill: 2-4, 2.70

Red Sox

Clay Buchholz 6-0, 1.69

Jon Lester, 6-0, 2.72

Cubs

Travis Wood 4-2, 2.03

Scott Feldman 3-3, 2.53

White Sox

Chris Sale 4-2, 2.88

Jake Peavy 5-1, 2.96

Rangers

Yu Darvish 7-1, 2.97

Derek Holland 3-2, 2.93

Nationals

Jordan Zimmerman 7-1, 1.69

Ross Detwiler 2-4, 2.76

Stephen Strasburg 2-5, 2.83

Royals

James Shields 2-3, 2.48

Ervin Santana 3-2, 2.79

Jeremy Guthrie 5-1, 2.82

Phillies

Kyle Kendrick 4-1, 2.47

Cliff Lee 4-2, 2.86

Cardinals

Adam Wainwright 5-3, 2.51

Jaime Garcia 4-2, 2.88

Lance Lynn 6-1, 2.88

(Note: Jake Westbrook is 2-1, 1.62 in six starts)

There are other combos of high repute -- CC Sabathia and Hiroki Kuroda, Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson, Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels (or Cliff Lee), Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner (or Tim Lincecum), R.A. Dickey and Josh Johnson, Verlander and Anibal Sanchez -- but they haven't performed up to the level of Hernandez and Iwakuma. Certainly, the Cardinals, Royals and Nationals have had more quality depth in their rotation, but as far as a one-two punch at the top, their pitchers haven't matched the Mariner pair. It's hard to argue with the 12-0 record from Lester and Buccholz, but we learned from Hernandez in 2010 that win-loss records can be overrated. I'd still take the Mariners' guys.

The one duo to watch belongs to the Dodgers, with Clayton Kershaw (4-2, 1.40) and Zack Greinke (2-0, 1.62). But thanks to Carlos Quentin, Greinke has made just three starts. Right now, the Mariners duo stands at the top.