The Seattle Times: The Hot Stone League

Are Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma the best one-two starting combo in the majors? (with minor league report)

Fri, 17 May 2013 13:02:34 PDT

(Here is today's Mariners minor league report)

(It appears that Danny Farquhar is coming up from Tacoma to fortify the Mariners' bullpen after it was emptied last night in their 3-2 victory at Yankee Stadium. Hat tip to Ryan Divish for first reporting the pending transaction. Hector Noesi will be the odd man out after going 4 1/3 solid innings in an emergency start against the Yankees. With six straight games, the M's will need a fresh arm in the pen, so Noesi goes down. Lucas Luetge went down under similar circumstances earlier in the year. Farquhar, who came to Seattle in the Ichiro trade, is not on the 40-man roster, so a move will have to be made. This will not be his major-league debut -- Farquhar pitched in three games for the Blue Jays in 2010).

The question in the headline is starting to be heard more and more. The numbers are undeniable: Hernandez is 5-2 with a 1.53 ERA in nine starts, with a 0.93 WHIP, a .215 opponents average, and a strikeouts-to-walks ratio of 64-10. Iwakuma is 5-1 with a 1.84 ERA in nine starts, with a 0.78 WHIP, a .183 opponents average, and strikeouts-to-walks ratio of 55-8. (Above, Dan Plesac of MLB Network talks about Iwakuma on MLB Tonight, comparing him to Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling).

Pick the statistic, and Hernandez and Iwakuma most likely rank in the top 10 in the major leagues. To have two such pitchers on one staff is a tremendous asset for a Mariners' club in search of a .500 record, and beyond that, contention. It makes you realize how close they would be if the other three pitchers performed even at a league-average level. But that's a story for another day.

The question on the table now is whether Hernandez and Iwakuma are the best one-two punch, among starting pitchers, in the major leagues. And a strong case could certainly be made.

There are just nin other teams that have at least two starters (minimum seven starts) with an ERA under 3.00. So right away, we're eliminating more than 65 percent of the league. The Tigers slipped off this list last night when Justin Verlander got lit up for eight earned runs in 2 1/3 innings, his ERA rising from 1.93 to 3.17. Here are the pairings (or more):

Diamondbacks

Pat Corbin: 6-0, 1.52

Trevor Cahill: 2-4, 2.70

Red Sox

Clay Buchholz 6-0, 1.69

Jon Lester, 6-0, 2.72

Cubs

Travis Wood 4-2, 2.03

Scott Feldman 3-3, 2.53

White Sox

Chris Sale 4-2, 2.88

Jake Peavy 5-1, 2.96

Rangers

Yu Darvish 7-1, 2.97

Derek Holland 3-2, 2.93

Nationals

Jordan Zimmerman 7-1, 1.69

Ross Detwiler 2-4, 2.76

Stephen Strasburg 2-5, 2.83

Royals

James Shields 2-3, 2.48

Ervin Santana 3-2, 2.79

Jeremy Guthrie 5-1, 2.82

Phillies

Kyle Kendrick 4-1, 2.47

Cliff Lee 4-2, 2.86

Cardinals

Adam Wainwright 5-3, 2.51

Jaime Garcia 4-2, 2.88

Lance Lynn 6-1, 2.88

(Note: Jake Westbrook is 2-1, 1.62 in six starts)

There are other combos of high repute -- CC Sabathia and Hiroki Kuroda, Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson, Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels (or Cliff Lee), Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner (or Tim Lincecum), R.A. Dickey and Josh Johnson, Verlander and Anibal Sanchez -- but they haven't performed up to the level of Hernandez and Iwakuma. Certainly, the Cardinals, Royals and Nationals have had more quality depth in their rotation, but as far as a one-two punch at the top, their pitchers haven't matched the Mariner pair. It's hard to argue with the 12-0 record from Lester and Buccholz, but we learned from Hernandez in 2010 that win-loss records can be overrated. I'd still take the Mariners' guys.

The one duo to watch belongs to the Dodgers, with Clayton Kershaw (4-2, 1.40) and Zack Greinke (2-0, 1.62). But thanks to Carlos Quentin, Greinke has made just three starts. Right now, the Mariners duo stands at the top.

With shortstop non-production, Mariners essentially fielding National League lineup in American League

Tue, 14 May 2013 22:48:10 PDT

Here is today's Mariners minor-league report.

I admit I'm a little surprised that the Mariners didn't make a move at shortstop before heading out on this nine-game roadtrip. After all, Brendan Ryan has dipped to .122 and doesn't yet have a hit in the month of May. Robert Andino's average is down to .159; he has one hit in May. For the Mariners, shortstop is a position that has become virtually a non-entity on offense.

How much of a non-entity? Glad you asked. Here are the combined statistics of Mariners shortstops this season:

38 games, 116 at bats, 6 runs, 13 hits, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 home runs, 13 total bases, six RBIs, .112 average, .194 on-base percentage, .112 slugging percentage, .306 OPS.

Now, here are the statistics for National League pitchers so far this season, averaged out for all 15 NL teams:

38 games, 70 at-bats, 4 runs, 9 hits, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 home runs, 12 total bases, 3 RBIs, .126 average, .156 on-base percentage, .168 slugging percentage, .324 OPS

The Mariners are getting slightly less production from their shortstops than NL teams are getting from their pitchers. So, even though the M's have the benefit of a designated hitter, they are essentially still burdened with having a pitcher in their lineup, same as National League teams.

To see what the Mariners are missing, vis a vis other AL teams, here's a look at the average shortstop production in the American League:

37 games, 137 at-bats, 16 runs, 35 hits, 7 doubles, 1 triple, 3 homers, 51 total bases, 14 RBIs, .253 average, .307 on-base percentage, .368 slugging percentage, .675 OPS.

Not dynamite numbers (keep in mind that the average is brought down by the Mariners themselves), but it's still fairly significant production falling by the wayside, especially considering the problems the Mariners are having with other spots in the batting order. The fact that the Mariners haven't yet made a change at shortstop tells me two things:

One, that Eric Wedge and the Mariners brass, really, really values the defense that Ryan provides -- as well they should. We all know he's a wizard with the glove. No argument there, even though Ryan's UZR numbers are surprisingly mediocre so far this season. Andino, on the other hand, has never been noted for a particularly strong glove, and his defensive stats bear that out. But I think Wedge places a premium on having a guy, like Ryan, who has proven definitively he can make the routine play, and in fact has a penchant for making spectacular plays. He's an asset on defense. Which brings us to my second assumption:

That Wedge is not convinced that Nick Franklin, in particular, can provide sufficient defense at shortstop. I find it very interesting that Franklin has started at second base in four of the last five Tacoma games. If they were contemplating a change involving Franklin -- who is hitting .339 with a .982 OPS -- taking over for Ryan, you'd think they'd have him playing extensively at shortstop. That leaves Carlos Triunfel, who is doing most of the work at shortstop for Tacoma. Triunfel is hitting .308 in the hitter-friendly PCL, but he has walked just six times and struck out 30 times in 146 at-bats. He also has eight errors in 37 games.

The guy that Wedge and Jack Zduriencik really love -- and who this spring seemed to assume the role of "shortstop of the future" -- is Brad Miller. He's been on a hot streak with Double-A Jackson, hitting .353 over his last 10 games to raise his overall average to .298 with five homers and 21 RBIs. Miller has a .392 on-base percentage and .484 slugging percentage for an .875 OPS. But Miller has made nine errors, and he's never played above Double-A.

The lesson here is that it's never quite as cut-and-dry as it may seem. The question the Mariners have to ask, and no doubt have been, is how long they can continue with virtually no offensive production from shortstop. The related question is, would the loss in defense that would accrue from bringing up Franklin or Triunfel be more damaging than whatever gain they would get in production. Right now, they clearly have determined that the answer to the first question is, a little bit longer. And the answer to the second question seems to be yes.

I've already stated that I think the time for a change has come, and that I would like to see Franklin get a shot at shortstop, with some time at second base as well. Let's find out if he can handle the position, and give the Mariners the benefit of what appears to be a dynamic bat. Such a move would also allow Miller to get promoted to Triple-A and accelerate his progress to the majors. Zduriencik has compared Miller's career path to that of Kyle Seager, and this is about the point at which Seager, in 2011, went from Jackson to Tacoma, en route to Seattle in July. If the determination within the organization is strong that Franklin would be a disaster at shortstop, then bring up Triunfel. It seems amazing to me that they would keep the status quo at a position that hasn't produced an extra base hit nearly a quarter of the way through the season.

But the Mariners have a different idea. And so for now, until either Ryan and Andino heat up, or a new bat gets a shot, the Mariners will continue to send up the equivalent of a National League pitcher in the shortstop spot.

Felix returns to Yankee Stadium -- with one element of drama missing

Tue, 14 May 2013 12:58:35 PDT

There's no doubt in my mind that Felix Hernandez gets extra fired up to pitch in Yankee Stadium. He's 4-1 with a 1.13 ERA in five starts in the Bronx. Two of his greatest performances occurred there -- a two-hit shutout on June 30, 2010, in which he struck out 11 in a 7-0 Seattle victory, and last year's two-hit masterpiece in which Hernandez and the Mariners prevailed 1-0 on Aug. 4.

If you've forgotten, their run scored in the second inning on a two-out single by Mike Carp off Hiroki Kuroda, scoring John Jaso, who had doubled. Neither of those guys are around to help Felix this time around. Eric Wedge raved about Hernandez's performance, calling it the best he'd ever seen by a pitcher while he was managing -- pretty high praise considering he managed Cliff Lee and C.C. Sabathia during Cy Young seasons.

"This ballpark, that lineup, the swings and misses, the mis-hits, with so many good hitters over there, the efficiency in which he did it, in a 1-0 ballgame — it doesn't get much better than that,'' Wedge said.

Hernandez also had drama in a previous start against the Yankees last year, one in which he limited them to two runs in 7 2/3 innings in a 4-2 win at Safeco Field in July. You might remember that game as the one in which he hit three Yankees batters, and not just any batters; the three icons: Ichiro, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez. In fact, A-Rod landed on the DL with a broken hand.

More drama could be in store tomorrow night when Hernandez squares up against Sabathia, just about as good a pitching matchup as you could hope for. But one element of the theater that has always accompanied King Felix's recent appearances in New York will be missing: the resolute questioning of Hernandez about his future, with special emphasis on the appeal of the New York Yankees. It was always amusing to see Hernandez fend off the questions with his steadfast assurance that he loved it in Seattle and didn't plan on going anywhere. It was a stance that appeared to be met with skepticism, though it was later proven to be quite sincere, obviously. . The under-current always seemed to be the inevitability that he would one day wind up in pinstripes -- a possibility that fell by the wayside, at least in the foreseeable future, when Hernandez signed his seven-year contract extension in February. It was the second time in his career that Hernandez, who turned 27 on April 8, has foregone free agency to stick with the Mariners. He signed a five-year, $78 million deal before the 2010 season.

This time, the Mariners gave him a full no-trade clause, the first one they've ever given out. That doesn't make it 100 percent certain he'll never leave the organization, of course, but it's safe to say he's not going anywhere for a good while. So any drama provided by Felix Hernandez's appearance at Yankee Stadium tomorrow will be refined to the pitcher's mound -- and that should be more than enough to make it a fun night in the Bronx.

Where do Mariners stand with Montero?

Fri, 10 May 2013 16:31:04 PDT

Jesus Montero is an intriguing fellow -- albeit frustrating at times.

When the Mariners acquired him from the Yankees, we heard all about what a hot mess he was behind the plate, but what a prodigy he was at the plate.

Now, it seems, we're barely seeing either side of Montero. He has started 19 games at catcher, compared to 16 for Kelly Shoppach, but eight of those came in the first 11 games of the season. Since then, Montero has started two fewer than Shoppach. Jon Heyman of CBS wrote a piece last week claiming there was a debate in the organization about Montero's playing time, with some in their front office wanting manager Eric Wedge to play Montero more.

I asked Wedge about that in Pittsburgh, and he said that he and general manager Jack Zduriencik are on the same page, though he said he hadn't heard about Heyman's article.

"We're always talking,'' he said. "Jack's been great. He's always been great with me about the lineup. We always have discussions about players, who's doing this or who's doing what. He's always been very respectful. No different than you guys, if I'm not playing (someone), I'll explain to him why. There's always a rhyme or reason. The coaches and I, we talk about the lineup each and every day. But no, there's been no issue with that, and I'm not sure where that came from."

There's no question Montero has had his defensive issues. But Wedge -- speaking before the game Wednesday in which Montero hit the game-winning homer and throw out his first base-runner in 16 attempts, helped out when the runner stopped -- gave expansive praise to the work Montero has put in honing his catching skills, particularly on the days he's not playing. In fact, Wedge said the same thing Zduriencik told me a couple of weeks ago -- that the defensive effort may be detracting from his offense. Because Montero's hitting has been the biggest disappointment this season. He's straddling the .200 mark and has just four extra-base hits -- a far cry from the surefire slugger he was supposed to be.

"I think offensively, it's been tough for him, just because to his credit, he's put so much time and effort into his defense,'' Wedge said. "I mean, he's really committed to it. Not just the physical aspect, but the mental aspect, calling a game. He's taking a lot of pride. He fully understands the responsibility. I think that's taken some away from him offensively.

"Offensively, I think (Dave) Hansen has done a nice job helping him commit to a better approach in batting practice. Has it leaked into his game yet? From time to time, but not consistently. He's still young, still learning. He's still trying to figure out the player he is and ultimately is going to be. He's just not there yet. We have to give it some time and see how it plays out."

One question I think has to be asked -- and was on Wednesday, by Shannon Drayer -- is why go to so much effort to hone Montero's defense when the Mariners have two defensive-minded catchers, Mike Zunino and John Hicks -- not that far away in the minors. Here's how Wedge answered:

"Because I believe in the test of time. I believe you give it every opportunity. Like I've always said, you'd rather be a day late than a day early. Because you can't change the day early. You can't replay that. That's just the lesson in discipline. That's where the press, or the fans, 0r sometimes people even internally, have to understand. Because that's my job as a manager, to play that out. That's the discipline and the strength I have to have. So when we make a decision...I'm a big believer in conviction. When you do it, you'd better be damn sure you're doing it for the right reasons, and you're doing it at the right time."

I think Wedge still sees the potential for Montero to be a player like he had in Cleveland in Victor Martinez, to whom he often compares him (in fact, he's said Montero is more advanced defensively than Martinez was in his early days).

"I think all catchers need to be defense first,'' Wedge said. "Victor Martinez was a great offensive player. The only reason he caught as long as he did, he committed to the other side. Jesus's carrying tool will be offense, no different than Victor. But you still need that commitment behind the plate. What I like about Jesus, and I'm not sure if it will stand the test of time -- we don't know yet; we're giving it every opportunity -- what I do appreciate, he's really committed to that, to the mental side of the game, calling the game, to catching.

"Physically, have their been some issues? Yeah. Fundamentally, have their been some issues? Yeah. But you can't deny the commitment, and I think that's what we all appreciate."

After Wednesday's big game by Montero, Wedge said, "The kid's working hard. He's so young and he's learning so much. I think he's starting to get to the point where he can put a little more energy into his hitting because he has been catching there for a little bit now."

I know there's been some talk about letting Montero work on all this in the minors. That's legitimate, but Zunino needs to play every day, and I don't think he's quite ready for the majors yet. It wouldn't serve him to take away playing time with Tacoma, and it wouldn't serve Montero to sit on the bench with Tacoma. You could give up on the catching altogether and make Montero a full-time DH, as Steve Phillips suggested recently to Mitch Levy on KJR. That would essentially mean pulling the plug on Justin Smoak, and moving Kendrys Morales to first base. Again, a legitimate debate, but I don't think the Mariners are ready to do either. Maybe it will come to that, but not yet.

So what I would like to see is for Montero to move back into doing the bulk of the catching for the Mariners. Let him put all this hard work on defense into play, and give him a fair chance to find his stroke. If Jesus Montero is going to turn into Victor Martinez, let's accelerate the process. If not, then let's find that out and then figure out the alternatives.