At stake in Obama's Tuesday speech: momentum

WASHINGTON — As President Obama prepares to address Congress and the American people Tuesday night in what's effectively his first State of the Union address, he faces three key questions about how he'll use the moment.

First, will he reach out to the Republicans who have felt free to scorn him, or match his popularity against theirs and try to slap them back?

Second, how specific will he be about his plans for the coming days? Will he propose nationalizing troubled banks or lay the groundwork for such a dramatic action? Will he use his first proposed budget this week to advance a campaign to overhaul the nation's health-care system?

Third, will he continue the warnings he's used so far to prod Congress to follow his lead on rescuing the economy, or will he employ a more upbeat voice and say help is on the way?

A month into his presidency, Obama will have a huge audience when he addresses the joint session of Congress, televised live at 6 p.m. PST Tuesday. It's likely to be his biggest since roughly 59 million people watched his inauguration last month.

This gives him another chance to make his case for the rush of actions he's already taken — a $787 billion economic-stimulus package and a $75 billion plan to rescue beleaguered homeowners from foreclosure — and for what's yet to come for banks, health care and more.

"This is huge for him," said Leila Brammer, a scholar of presidential communications at Gustavus Adolphus College in Minnesota. "It's big for any first-year president, but particularly for Obama. He came in with great momentum. Then he had a few stumbles. This is the time to recapture that momentum."

Whether he does that could determine how well he does in coming weeks and months.

Some things to watch for Tuesday night:

• Will he reach out to Republicans?

Obama loves to talk about changing the tone of politics. He's a genial, civil guy and enjoys having Republicans over for drinks, and they like him. They felt free to vote unanimously against his stimulus plan in the House, however, and they rushed to challenge his housing-rescue plan before he announced it.

Their choice to give the Republican response Tuesday night, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, has talked of refusing to accept some of the money in the stimulus package.

Obama could go on talking about bipartisanship, or he could remind Republicans he's the one with broad support: 69 percent approval in the last McClatchy/Ipsos poll.

"Republicans don't seem to think they need to play ball with him right now," said Dante Scala, a political scientist at the University of New Hampshire.

So will Obama signal that he'll come to their states or districts and match his popularity against theirs? Or will he use the speech to remind them that some in their own ranks voted against the stimulus but went home to brag about the benefits?

• How specific will he be about his agenda?

Though he already signed the stimulus into law, he'll talk about it. He needs to assure people it's going to start helping the economy. He'll also talk about his plans to shore up housing and how to use the second half of the bank-bailout money.

He may talk about whether he's moving toward nationalizing insolvent banks and whether his proposed budget this week will include more money for health care, as he promised in the campaign.

"He's personally very popular. But he's proposed the largest peacetime spending in American history. And some of what he proposes to do is controversial," said G. Terry Madonna, a political scientist at Franklin & Marshall College in Pennsylvania.

"There are serious questions about whether this is the right course to take. He has to continue to work hard to make sure his approval rating doesn't drop, which would embolden Republicans and weaken his ability to lead."

• What kind of tone will he set?

Since Election Day, Obama has traded campaign talk of hope and "yes, we can" for a more sober message of hard times and warnings that things will get worse.

Some of that was simply straight talk; Obama would have sacrificed credibility had he engaged in booster talk only to see unemployment continue to rise. Some also was meant to prod Congress.

Now that he's achieved his first big initiatives, does he need to start building up confidence so consumers will start to spend?

"He has to reach a balance between realism about the current economic environment and the future," Madonna said. "He can't just be down in the mouth."

He could do that by illustrating enduring U.S. values with American GIs who have served overseas, or US Airways pilot Chesley "Sully" Sullenberger, who ditched his damaged jet in the Hudson River with no loss of life.

Said Brammer, of Gustavus Adolphus College: "He will need to leave us with a sense of hope, of overcoming and preserving."