Chávez's health leave his allies queasy

MANAGUA, Nicaragua —

Swirling rumors and wild speculations about Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez's health are upsetting alarmist pundits and forcing leftist politicians even further into hermetic silence.

As the firebrand leader's illness drags into its third week, leaders from tiny Caribbean nations to South American strongholds are keeping a close eye on his condition.

Countries in the region — Cuba and Nicaragua in particular — are beholden to the oil-rich nation and the bounty of its ailing leader, the author and bankroller of 21st-century socialism in Latin America.

Should a debilitating illness — or election for that matter — cause a drastic change in leadership in Venezuela, repercussions could be severe. But experts caution that, even if Chávez's sickness is more serious than his government admits, there is no reason to suspect his allies won't continue his foreign policy of providing deeply subsidized barrels of oil to friendly nations.

"There are countries that could fill the vacuum in terms of volume, but not prices," said Jorge Piñon, a former oil-company executive who follows Cuba and Venezuela oil deals closely. But Piñon stressed it's an unlikely scenario, particularly as little information is released about the pelvic abscess and surgery that has kept Chávez in a Cuban hospital since June 11.

Chávez sends Cuba 100,000 barrels of oil daily in exchange for in-kind services such as doctors and sports trainers. Not since the Soviet Union's collapse has Cuba been so dependent on another nation's subsidies, and so deeply at risk of economic crisis should the support end.

Nicaragua, too, has been financed to the tune of $1.6 billion. Critics say the money became an off-the-books discretional slush fund that propelled President Daniel Ortega's dramatic rise in economic power.

Piñon said that, while Chávez provides refined oil products to Ecuador and Bolivia, they are not nearly as dependent on Venezuela as the Caribbean countries that enjoy steep subsidies.

Still, the inner workings of Chávez's Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas (ALBA) always has been a mystery — even to those on the receiving end, making the region's vulnerability due to the president's sudden illness all the more unclear.

"No one knows how the money is used," said Nicaragua's Dionisio Marenco, the former Sandinista mayor of Managua who met with Chávez in Venezuela in 2006 to lay the groundwork for Nicaragua's inclusion in ALBA.

It's precisely due to that lack of institutionalism and dependence on the personal friendships that Marenco fears could result in "extremely difficult" times for Nicaragua should Chávez not return quickly to Venezuela's helm.

Still, even in Nicaragua, a country whose economy is among the most propped up by Venezuelan aid, not everyone is worried. That's because Ortega invested much of the Venezuelan aid in a series of ALBA businesses that turn substantial profits in key sectors such as energy, oil, lumber, cattle and tourism.

Ortega credits Chávez for helping Nicaragua weather the global financial crisis. The Nicaraguan president regularly proclaims "thank God for ALBA" for ending the country's power blackouts, subsidizing public transportation costs, providing social assistance to farmers, cash bonuses to state employees and saving the economy from ruin.

While Ortega rarely gives a speech without mentioning or thanking Chávez, he has remained curiously silent since the Venezuelan president was hospitalized.

The Venezuelan government claims Chávez is recovering on schedule, but the lack of details about his condition and the continued absence of Chávez's larger-than-life personality has led to wild speculations that his condition is more serious than government officials are saying.

Ortega didn't mention his revolutionary comrade Saturday night at a Sandinista rally, even as supporters waived Venezuelan flags.

"Uncertainty about Chávez's future is unlikely to have much impact on Ortega's current strength: Ortega has shown that he is often a couple of steps ahead of the game," said Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue. "True, he'd prefer to continue to draw on Chávez's largesse, but Nicaragua's economy is humming along, and Ortega has lots of money at his disposal."

Sandinista officials, meanwhile, are maintaining the ALBA line: No comment.

"It is better not to opine on this, because it just contributes to speculation," said Jacinto Suarez, secretary of international relations for the Sandinista Front.