Will the Mariners sign draft pick Dustin Ackley before the Monday deadline?

Jack Zduriencik won't say much about the Mariners' negotiations with Dustin Ackley, the second overall pick in the June draft.

He doesn't want to cloud what are certain to be tense and sensitive negotiating sessions with Scott Boras as the Monday deadline looms to get Ackley signed, or lose his rights.

But he does have one message he's willing, almost eager, to convey, and he seems to be talking directly to Ackley:

"For any player, what an opportunity," Zduriencik said Thursday, standing on the fringes of Safeco Field as the Mariners went through batting practice. "I would hope any player, especially someone drafted as high as a player like this, would relish the opportunity to be part of what we hope is going to be a turnaround here.

"It's a great area of the country, great fan base, great community, great ownership. I think we have a lot to offer players. You have a player of this caliber — you certainly hope things will work out and he can be part of our future. Because we like him an awful lot as a player."

In these final hours before Monday's 9:01 p.m. (Pacific Time) deadline to get draft picks signed, however, it will come down to what these things always come down to: money.

Especially with Boras, who historically drives such a hard bargain with draft picks that some teams simply bypass his clients altogether. Not the Mariners, who over the years have taken, among others, Alex Rodriguez, Jason Varitek and, most recently, Josh Fields, all represented by Boras.

All eventually got signed, but all took excruciatingly difficult and delayed routes to getting their signature on the dotted line. Fields, a pitcher out of Georgia, held out until spring training (as a college senior, he wasn't beholden to the mid-August deadline) before finally signing in February.

Boras controls not only Ackley, but five other players in the first round, all unsigned, including No. 1 Stephen Strasburg (Nationals) and No. 3 Donavan Tate (Padres). A total of 12 first-rounders remained unsigned as of Saturday.

Boras has already positioned Ackley, who broke offensive records at North Carolina, as one of the best college players of his generation, another Mark Teixeira.

The comparison to Teixeira is not accidental, because Boras is certain to use the $9.5 million bonus given by the Rangers to Teixeira as the No. 5 overall pick out of Georgia Tech in 2001 as a benchmark for Ackley.

The largest bonus ever given a college player is $10.5 million by the Cubs to Mark Prior, the No. 2 pick in that same 2001 draft. But that is sure to be shattered by Strasburg.

Boras has compared Strasburg to Daisuke Matsuzaka and floated a $50 million signing figure, but few expect him to get anywhere near that much.

Strasburg, like Ackley, could threaten to go back to school for his senior season, or play in the independent leagues (as Boras client J.D. Drew did after a contract impasse with the Phillies). The possibility has been raised that Strasburg could play in Japan next year.

Yet the optimal solution is obviously to get a deal done, with tremendous pressure on both the Nationals and Mariners to deliver their blue-chippers. It's not unusual for so many first-round picks to be unsigned so late. Last year, 11 first-rounders were unsigned going into the final day, and just two didn't sign — college pitcher Aaron Crow, the No. 9 pick (Nationals), and high-school pitcher Gerritt Cole, the No. 28 pick (Yankees). Cole was a Boras client; Crow wasn't.

It is likely that many first-round deals have already been verbally agreed to, but teams are encouraged by MLB to hold off on announcements to keep from influencing other ongoing negotiations.

If the Mariners don't sign Ackley, they would be compensated with the pick after the No. 2 pick in next year's draft. But they envision Ackley as an offensive cornerstone in the near future, and are highly motivated to complete a deal, insiders say.

Getting a deal done could well hinge on how willing they are to buck the bonus-slotting system instituted by MLB in 2000 — what one veteran agent told me this week is "collusion in its grandest form. ... But it affects what at the time are amateur players, so baseball feels it's something it can do safely."

Essentially, the commissioner's office recommends the bonuses to be given players in the first 10 rounds. Teams that want to go over those "slots" are supposed to first make their case to MLB before undertaking such action. They are ultimately free to pay whatever they want (but subject to fines if they pay over slot without first notifying MLB).

"Supposedly, the quote unquote slot figure the commissioner sends to the teams are suggested numbers for the particular spot in the draft," said an agent. "Supposedly, the teams do not have to abide by those numbers. But the reality of the situation is, they are pretty heavily pressured to abide by those numbers."

Some teams, including the Tigers and Yankees, are known for going rogue and paying whatever it takes to get their draft choice signed. According to another agent, about 23 of the 30 teams in MLB buy into the commissioner's slotting system, including, traditionally, the Mariners. Seattle has in the past rarely, if ever, gone over slot. But on Saturday the Mariners gave their other No. 1 pick Nick Franklin (No. 27 overall) an over-slot bounus of $1.28 million. The MLB slot figure for the pick was $1,161,000.

They will almost certainly have to go over slot to get Ackley signed. This year's slotting recommendations were cut 10 percent by MLB because of the economy. According to Baseball America, the slot figure for Ackley at No. 2 is $3.25 million, down from $3.5 million last year.

It probably will take much more than that to get Ackley signed. Last year's No. 2 overall pick was Pedro Alvarez, like Ackley a highly decorated college hitter, out of Vanderbilt — and a Boras client. He eventually signed for a guaranteed $6.355 million (after his initial $6 million bonus was contested by the union, which claimed he signed after the deadline).

One more attempt to get Zduriencik to comment on the Ackley negotiations was shot down. But he did add this:

"We are very happy we selected this player, even at this moment in time. He's got a chance to be at the grass roots of something special here. Let's hope things will work out."

Larry Stone: 206-464-3146 or lstone@seattletimes.com